This was a big day for us in Missouri, in the Ozarks, of all places!  After coming up empty on the big high risk day yesterday in OK/KS, the chase gods smiled on us today.   For some reason my infrequent forays into the Show Me state wind up paying off.  Of course, I don’t bother going into Missouri unless there is a good tornado chance and there are no other options, so that explains a lot!

This was the final day of this very productive late-May chase  pattern and the 9th day of 10-day Tour 3, and a chance to make up for the foibles and frustrations of May 24th.  Unfortunately, Dallas and Indra had to go back to Los Angeles and Channel 7, and they headed back south to Dallas for their flight.  We left the Apple Tree Motel in Independence, KS, and headed for the hills and forests of southern Missouri —– GAD.

SPC painted a large (and hatched) HIGH RISK area in their morning outlooks from southeastern MO eastward into KY/TN/IN/IL.  The wording in the discussion was a bit intimidating:

FARTHER EAST...SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
   AR/SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY...SPREADING INTO WEST TN AND
   SOUTHERN IND.  0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 250-400 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH LONG
   HODOGRAPHS AND HIGH INSTABILITY SUGGEST THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF MULTIPLE
   STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

That is precisely what I like to see when leading 15 people into the hilly jungles!  Well, maybe not so much.  If the storms are wet and the action areas are rain-wrapped, then chasing in Missouri is not fun at all, and can be very dangerous.

I didn’t really have a specific target area in mind when we crossed into Missouri from Kansas late morning.  I basically just wanted to get into the high risk area of southeastern Missouri and then figure things out as the day progressed.  Some chasers were favoring northeastern Arkansas and/or western Tennessee.  Well, we had to get east first and then fine tune.  We hopped onto I-44 near Joplin and continued to Springfield, and continued east on U.S. 60 towards Willow Springs, Van Buren, and Poplar Bluff.  I had never been through this part of Missouri, and I was concerned that the road might be a bit slow and curvy since it cuts right through the Ozark Mountains.  I was delighted to find that the road was a nice divided highway with normal highway speeds, and light traffic!

Some 50 miles or so east of Springfield, a cumulonimbus updraft was exploding and “anvilling” out quickly not too far to the northeast.  It was only 2:15 p.m. CDT!  This storm moved quickly to the northeast and dumped one-inch hail on Houston, in Texas County, MO.  From Willow Springs, fifteen minutes later, another impressive young updraft was easily visible well to our southeast.  The visibility was excellent and the sky was blue and the terrain and trees were not too much of a nuisance, thank goodness.  This developing cell was perhaps 50 miles distant, just south of the MO/AR border, and would be one that we might be able to intercept somewhere down U.S. 60.  It was moving into the High Risk area, so the chase was on!  Here is a pic of the hailer north of U.S. 60:

We arrived in Van Buren, MO, at 3:20 p.m. CDT, and our target cell was tornado-warned and about 20 miles to our south.  (The storm produced an EF-1 tornado near Myrtle, on the MO/AR border, SSW of Van Buren, just before 3 p.m. CDT.).   It was moving northeastward at around 40 mph, so we continued east on U.S. 60 to Ellsinore, a tiny town in extreme eastern Carter County.  The map shows the Mark Twain National Forest here, and we were unable to get a decent look at the lower portion of the storm due to the hills and trees.  With the supercell approaching from the southwest, we were under the anvil and had some rain to deal with, but generally the conditions were not bad at all.  In fact, I don’t recall any lightning or hail or heavy rain as we cut in front of the updraft between Van Buren and Ellsinore.  I elected to stop at a roadside convenience store at Ellsinore, as this put us pretty much directly in the path of the storm’s impressive “couplet” —- the radar signature which shows where strong rotation is evident.  Chris Gullikson suggested that this spot was likely a little too risky to stay at, given that we didn’t have a good view of the approaching updraft base and we might have a quick and unpleasant surprise.  I agreed, so we went a few more miles ESE on 60 and looked for a good high point.  We found one (where a convenience store was) and looked back to the southwest, where a splendid and tilted supercell updraft dominated the view!  Still, a little hill and its tall trees obstructed our view of the base of the updraft.  Given recent reports, we figured that there was a good chance that a tornado was in progress with the cell.  Chad was along U.S. 60 and waving frantically to westbound vehicles to alert them to the danger ahead!  Our group gathered along the shoulder and peered towards the west, along the highway’s right-of-way where trees had been cleared and a low-level view was afforded.  What would we see when the storm base crossed the road?!  Check out the images:

Obviously, a good-sized and highly visible tornado was in progress as the storm crossed U.S. 60 from left to right.  These images were taken from 3:54 to 3:57 p.m. CDT.  It is a shame that the terrain and trees allowed only a momentary glimpse for us, as this was a very long-track and potentially violent tornado.  We were on a classic supercell with a large tornado without any pesky rain-wrapping, but how were we going to be able to actually SEE what was going on?!  We were in a large pull-out area that was cleared of trees, and we could barely see the upper part of the tornado as it moved to our northwest.  This was exciting, but very frustrating, too!  I estimated that the tornado was about two or three miles distant and sent out a spotter report.  The following day we determined that it was slightly more than five miles away where it crossed U.S. 60.  At least one home was destroyed there.

As the storm and tornado moved away to our northwest and north, I decided that we may as well make an attempt at another intercept.  I was definitely not optimistic that we would ever see the tornado again, though, given the trees and hills, and because we first had to drive about 12 miles to the east-southeast to catch a road north.  We made our way north on U.S. 67 (not too far northwest of Poplar Bluff) and entered Wayne County.  Fortunately, this road was similar to U.S. 60, a wide and fast swath through the forest.  As we neared Greenville, the storm and tornado again came into view!  And this time, the tornado looked to be a massive wedge!  Chad commented on how the tornadic updraft was literally sucking in small updrafts and nearby cloud material.  And, as earlier, the updraft was just one big tornado-making machine, with zero precipitation issues in and around it!  Our route was a curvy and up-and-down trek through the forest, and we only had occasional decent glimpses of the large tornado, unfortunately.  We didn’t come upon a good place to turn off and watch, so we kept on heading north.  Near Greenville, it appeared that the tornado had already cleared U.S. 67 north of town.  There were some trees down, but I’m not certain if these were due directly to the tornado, or perhaps to strong inflow winds or RFD.    It looked like the tornado had ended at least momentarily, though the survey map for the storm shows that it continued another 15 miles or so to near Buckhorn.  It seemed futile to try to stay with the fast-moving storm, so we turned around and headed south to Poplar Bluff.  A couple of stills of the wedge while heading north on U.S. 60, south of Greenville, near 4:32 p.m. CDT:

There was still plenty of daylight remaining, so we felt that additional tornadic supercells could be sampled.  We headed east again on U.S. 60 through Poplar Bluff and came upon some dark and menacing storm clouds, but these were not well organized.  About halfway to Kentucky from Poplar Bluff, I decided to come back to the west where new storms were going up.  These were pretty around sunset south of Poplar Bluff, but were not very strong.  At Poplar Bluff we celebrated with a steak dinner and met up with Jim Cantore, in town to cover the severe weather in the nation’s midsection.

TORNADO WRAP-UP

The NWS office in Paducah, KY, surveyed the May 25 tornado in southeastern Missouri. The official path length was estimated to be 48 miles (from Grandin to Buckhorn) , the greatest width at one mile, and the rating at EF-3.

This storm produced a tornado near the MO/AR border (3N Myrtle) around 3 p.m., and 45 to 50 minutes later considerable tornado damage occurred at Grandin, 32 miles or so to the northeast.  Apparently there were no tornado reports between Myrtle and Grandin.  The area between the two small towns is forested and undeveloped, though the supercell did cross U.S. 160 in Oregon County.  The large tornado did EF-3 damage near Ellsinore around 3:55 p.m., and had a wedge tornado with it near Greenville and Silva at 4:30 p.m. CDT.  It apparently persisted for another 15 to 20 minutes on the way towards Buckhorn.

It is uncertain whether a tornado was with the storm between Myrtle and Grandin.  Given that “90-100 mph winds” and EF-1 damage occurred 3N of Myrtle, and given “major” tornado damage in Grandin, it is possible that a tornado was in progress with the supercell for a good chunk of time (if not the entire time!) during its trek from the MO/AR border to U.S. 60 at Ellsinore.  (Clip g below shows a new tornado developing near Grandin…this might have been a second or third tornado cycle for the supercell.)  The storm was tornadic or nearly tornadic for approximately two hours over a distance of about 80 miles, from Myrtle to Buckhorn.  Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries with it, as it missed the small towns in the area.  (A similar long-track tornado did not miss towns back on May 21, 1957.)  There were very few other chasers on this storm, and pictures and video of the tornado are surprisingly few.  (Surprising given the highly visible/non rain-wrapped nature of a long-track tornado in mid-afternoon during the height of chase season.)  Of course, the horrible terrain and landscape (from a chaser’s perspective) kept tornado images to a minimum!

Tempest Clip A by Bill Reid and Chad Cowan

Tempest Clip B by a guest in Chris’ van

Some youtube clips:

clip a near Ellsinore

clip b from chaser Nick Nolte

clip c from chaser Nick Nolte (long version)

clip d near Ellsinore (some language and hyper-ventilating, looks like the same location as clip a

clip e by chaser Mike Brady along U.S. 60

clip f from Silva, MO

clip g from Grandin, MO

Some six or seven miles east of Fairview (on Highway 8/58), we were able to look back to the southwest to see the supercell updraft and attendant structure.  A clear slot was evident, but important lowerings were missing.  The next paved road south was Highway 8, south to Okeene.  It was nine miles east of Fairview and put us a little farther east than I would have liked, but wasn’t terribly far.  Light rain was falling when we arrived directly east of the storm base, about six miles or so north of Okeene.

We weren’t here more than a few minutes when a skinny funnel cloud became apparent beneath the updraft base, and a wispy dust plume from the surface came up to meet it—we had a little tornado!  It was about 4 or 5 miles away, perhaps, over open countryside, and persisted for a few minutes.  When the tornado ended the storm seemed to struggle some, and we watched it go downhill on the west side of Okeene.

From there we went east and south towards the Piedmont area to view other storms, but these were unimpressive.  And, finally, we made our way back north to Kingfisher to watch a nasty HP supercell/complex descend upon the town from the northwest.  There was no apparent tornado threat, so we found some car wash shelters in Kingfisher and waited for the storm to release its fury.  We were not disappointed, as winds to about 50 mph and lots of hail to around an inch in diameter blasted our surroundings.  As dusk drew nigh, we made our way east on 51 through heavy rain to Guthrie for the night.

In image 1782 below the dusty remains of the weak tornado are visible.  Dallas and Indra are in front of the “TIV” in Guthrie.  I’ll add some video stills of the tornado soon!

Many chasers in the DFW/OKC corridor were contemplating a jungle chase near and east of I-35 in southern OK.  I saw no need to head that far south, as indicated in my brief forecast post to CFDG around 11 a.m.:

Models agree on storm formation in extreme SE KS today, near Parsons. CAPE is forecast to be off the charts and winds aloft are more than sufficient for speed and directional shear from the surface to 500. The RUC and NAM suggest a small back-bent lobe of high CAPE/convergence in extreme SE KS—-this area looks to be right in front of a surface triple point. We have an easy drive from EMP this afternoon.

We had enough time to grab some lunch in Yates Center or Iola, and then continued towards Parsons.  Convection began somewhat early in the afternoon not too far west of Parsons!  From about 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. we were east, then southeast, then south of the action area of the slow-moving HP supercell (which was near Parsons).

The storm seemed reluctant to push eastward, which made it easy to stay with, but it was dumping a lot of precip in the same area and generating cool north outflow winds.  As  5 p.m. neared, the storm appeared to be a poorly organized and messy HP, and in my NOW cast post I aired my observations:

We have been on the Parsons KS cell for a couple of hours, and it continues to backbuild so that it is practically stationary.  No tornadoes with it yet, apparently.  South of the core, it is spewing out cool air from the north (7S of Parsons).  I suppose the best play is towards the SW edge where new development continues and where good surface air might have a chance to get beneath an updraft base.  Any other ideas?

I was frustrated with the storm, as it was undercut by its own outflow and it did not seem to be a tornado candidate.  I discussed our options with Chad and Chris, and we were a bit unsure as to how to proceed.  We drifted west on U.S. 160 a few miles to Mound Valley, I believe, for a pit stop.  We thought that by positioning ourselves towards the southwest edge of the cell (well, perhaps I should say “storm complex”, as there were three separate but bunched-up cores aligned west-to-east), that perhaps a big new updraft on this side of the storm could materialize and feed on unspoiled inflow (850 mb flow was very strong and moist and out of the SSW).  Well, I should have incorporated one of my chase mantras — one that should be taped to the dashboard of the van — “when in doubt, error to the east”.  By doing this, I would have left more options open.

As it turned out, our attention towards the west side of the Parsons-area complex put us out of position to get on the Joplin tornado.  After the pit stop, the guides and I continued to be unimpressed with the look of the nearby supercell, and we decided to focus on new strong convection not too far to our south, in extreme northeastern Oklahoma.  We dropped south to 166 and blasted east, in order to be able to drop south in front of supercells which were developing near Miami, OK.  Along 166 west of Chetopa, we could see the back end of the storm updraft which was associated with the developing Joplin tornado.  The in-cloud lightning with this storm to our east was quite impressive, and the radar was beginning to indicate strong low-level rotation.  HECK!  This was relatively new development on the east side of the (seemingly junky) Labette/Cherokee counties storm.  Something happened quickly to trigger the massive new updrafts just west of Joplin; perhaps the low-level jet was strengthening or shifting a little to the east.  Regardless, we were watching from about 20-25 miles away and could not catch up, as it was moving east at at least 30 mph.  Joplin was in the path, and an EF5-rated tornado destroyed much of the city and killed more than a hundred people.  This would turn out to be the deadliest tornado in the United States in about 50 years.

Well, I was definitely NOT pleased with the turn of events from a tour director’s standpoint, as I and my guests were missing out on an historical event.  But, maybe things happen for a reason.  One chase tour company was in Joplin when the tornado formed, and was fortunate to narrowly get out of the way in time.  Another tour group came up to the city just after the tornado, and went into search and rescue mode.  Who knows how our day would have wound up had we remained on the east side of the Parsons-area activity?!

I was also NOT pleased or confident in our prospects for the remaining daylight hours.  Though severe storms and supercells were organizing not too far away, I feared that we would find it very difficult, if not impossible, to see anything, given the nasty chase terrain and wet nature of the storms.  A look at the map around the OK/MO/KS/AR area, and one sees  lakes, forests, caves, rivers, scenic routes and very crooked roads —- a NIGHTMARE for a storm chaser!  I thought we were done.

But, press on we must.  A supercell south of Miami had a tornado warning and was moving east near Grove, OK.  A mile after entering Missouri on Route 10/Missouri Road U,  I had Chad and Chris steer the vans southward along Highway 43.  We needed to quickly scoot south about 20 miles.  Along the way we were treated to some sharp curves, deep ravines, and nasty forest conditions on both sides of the road!  If this persisted, then we would be lucky to see the tornado if it were directly overhead!  Luckily, after about 15 miles (a tad south of the highway west to Grove), we found ourselves with open farmland to the west!  We seemed positioned decently with regard to the approaching supercell and stopped at a relatively elevated observing spot.  The storm had a tornado reported with it, but we were still in moderate rain and murk and haze and could not see very far.  The action area was still perhaps five miles away to the west.  We went a couple of more miles to the south with the hope of getting out of the rain and finding better visibility.  Again we stopped along the west side of Hwy 43, just north of the intersection with Route 90, and just south of the Simmons Foods poultry processing plant.

Well, it was a little better here, with some indications of clearer skies to the WSW and maybe a little low-level cloud structure to the west.  After a few minutes the rain let up and a good-sized tornado emerged out of the murk to our WNW!  (The time was 7:22 p.m. CDT/(0022Z).  It was a barrel beneath a very low cloud base and it was headed to the east, to our northwest, so we were safe to view from here.  Chad called 911 to have the sirens sounded —- Southwest City, Missouri, was only a mile and a half to our southwest.  It looked like only open farmland was being impacted by the tornado, thankfully.  A strange “roar” of sorts was coming from the direction of the tornado, and I found it difficult to believe that something that was perhaps two miles distant could be making that sound!  It sounded kind of like the muffled roar of a distant jet engine.  I thought that maybe some loud fans or machines had been turned on in the nearby chicken coops, but that was not the case!

The tornado maintained its beefy and large appearance for several minutes, but as it moved more to our NNW, the contrast around it decreased markedly, precipitation wrapped between us and the tornado, rain fell at our location, and the funnel appeared to shrink considerably.  With visibility deteriorating and with the tornado disappearing to our NNW and north, I elected to drive a little bit to the east on nearby Route 90 to stay safe, to stay with the storm, and perhaps find less wet conditions.   This was at 7:30 p.m. CDT.  Here are some video stills of the Southwest City, MO, tornado taken from 7:22 to 7:28 p.m. CDT…note how the tornado becomes completely obscured to the north-northwest in the final image:

After only a mile or so east on 90 a long and slender funnel came into view to our northwest.  We stopped again, and watched the rope out phase, about a mile and a half distant.  Leaves and small debris drifted out of the sky in our vicinity for several minutes.

I had the option of heading east on Hwy 90 to stay with the cell, but the road jogged right into the storm’s path, and looked to be mired in nasty hills and forests.  Forget that noise!  We dropped south through Southwest City on 43 and waited for the next supercell, very close to the OK/MO/AR triple-point.  This storm arrived and lacked impressive, notable, sustained low-level organization.  We watched it move away to the east, and our chase day was over.

With a little bit of daylight remaining, we ventured north on Stateline Road from Southwest City and came upon downed utility poles and severely damaged farm structures.  This was close to two miles to the northwest of our viewing location, and this is where the tornado crossed from Delaware County, OK, into McDonald County, Missouri.  We battled heavy rain and occasional hail as we made our way west to Grove for a convenience store dinner, and I booked rooms for the group in Tulsa.

Somehow we managed to salvage the day and wind up with a big tornado, rated EF-3 —– not bad!  Even better, this tornado caused no deaths and few if any injuries.

Here are some links to video of the Grove, Oklahoma, tornado:

Link One, by Matt Crowther and Betsy Abrams, as the Grove tornado developed southwest and south of Zena, northwest of Jay.

Link Two, by Matt Crowther and Betsy Abrams, looking north and then northeast from Hwy 59, about 6S of Grove, as the tornado strengthens considerably and continues to the east.

Link Three, by Justin Teague, looking south at the strengthening tornado along Hwy 59 south of Grove, and a brief look at the semi-wedge stage near the OK/MO state line.

Link Four A and Four B, by John Monteverdi, wide view of the storm and tornado looking south from Grove, OK.

And, some links to video of the Southwest City, Missouri, from those of us in the Tempest Tours group:

Link Five, by Tempest guide Chad Cowan, while he is in contact with the 9-1-1 operator.

Link Six, by Tempest guide Chris Gullikson, including a fabulous wide-angle view time lapse of the supercell and the tornado as it becomes visible to our WNW.

Link Seven, by Tempest guest Lisa Beal

Link Eight, by Tempest guest Darren Lo (I think!)

I am unable to locate any other video online of the Southwest City tornado (as of early October, 2011).

NWS Springfield, Missouri, links regarding this EF-3 rated tornado are here and here.  (You may have to scroll down to find the Southwest City tornado.)  The “Southwest City” tornado was a continuation of the “Grove, OK” tornado which began at 6:52 p.m. CDT, 2.5 miles WSW of Zena, OK (or about 7 miles southwest of Grove).  The survey team from NWS Tulsa rated the tornado at EF-3, determined a maximum path width of 1550 yards (0.88 miles), and a path length of 16.5 miles up to the Missouri border.  The tornado traveled another 1.5 miles approximately in Missouri, giving a total path length of 18 miles.  The tornado entered Missouri at about 7:26 p.m. CDT, and ended at 7:33 p.m. near Hwy 43, 2.2 miles NNE of Southwest City.  Total time on the ground was 41 minutes.

For comparison, the EF-5 Joplin tornado, which occurred about 90 minutes prior to the Grove/Southwest City tornado, had a maximum path width of “3/4 to one mile”, a path length of 22.1 miles, and lasted for about 38 minutes.  It appears plausible that had the Grove/Southwest City tornado hit a good-sized city during its strongest phase, damage comparable to the Joplin tornado could have been realized.

From the Neosho Daily News on the following day:

The National Weather Service reported a tornado touch down at 7:30 p.m. near Missouri Highway 43 and Route O, north of Southwest City.

According to McDonald County Emergency Management Director Gregg Sweeten, there were “a couple” of homes destroyed on the Oklahoma side of what is commonly called Stateline Road.

The  National Weather Service initially reported injuries, though Sweeten said there were not. Sweeten said the funnel toppled a cell phone tower near the Simmons Foods poultry processing plant on Highway 43. The Simmons plant itself sustained some damage when the storm tore up a row of chicken houses but left the main facility intact, according to reports.

Sweeten said the tornado, which has yet to be rated for size, lifted off the ground shortly after hitting Simmons.

——————

…below is pasted my chase account for CFDG, written on the morning of May 23rd…

Brian Morganti, Chris Gullikson, Chad Cowan, Tank Dickson and I targeted extreme SE KS on Sunday, and positioned ourselves in front of the Parsons, KS supercell. This storm went up a little early, around 2 p.m. It was backbuilding and raining in the same area for quite a while, and, though tornado warned, was severely undercut by its cool outflow. The eastern flank began moving eastward into uncontaminated air by 5 p.m. and evolved into the tornadic supercell that hit Joplin. We were on the west side of the “Parsons” cell at about 5 p.m., and it was too late to be able to get to the Joplin cell.

We targeted new storm towers which were visible to our south and SSW. These were moving east and I was not confident that we would be able to get in front of one of them, given the slower roads and poor terrain we had to deal with. From Miami, OK, we went east to Seneca, MO, and then south on a woodsy road in heavy rain—route 43. We were in deep valleys or canyons with tall trees, and the storm to our SW was not looking that good, so I figured that our day was about over. We finally cleared the forest a bit and came out onto some flat-ish terrain with some clearings (without wall-to-wall trees). The storm to our west was recently tornado warned, and the velocity couplet had recently come up quickly. We had moderate rain, though, and the view to the west was murky and sketchy. We could see a storm base from time to time, but that was about all. The rain let up a little and we had a burst of strong SE winds. This was on a hilltop near a Shamrock convenience store about a mile and a half north of Southwest City, MO. The rain let up almost entirely, and, about 4 or 5 minutes after we had reached this spot, a large tornado emerged out of the murk and rain to our WNW! This was a fairly beefy stovepipe that was cloaked in a sheath of lower clouds. We could only see the bottom 500 feet or so of the tornado. It was perhaps two miles away and moving east rather slowly. Soon, the contrast improved, and an obvious roar/deep jet engine sound was emanating from the cyclone. I had never heard such a pronounced and loud tornado roar before, and I thought that there was no way the roar could be that loud since the tornado was still a little over a mile away —- but it was. We had a minute or two with the good look to our NW—-Chad called 911 and the sirens in town were sounded quickly. I tried to get out a spotternetwork report but could not connect. The tornado became rain-wrapped just to our north and we had leaves falling from the sky. I was concerned that the tornado might drift south towards us, so we scooted east a half mile and stopped again. To our NW was a fantastic slender white tornado, which roped out a minute or two later into a gray “dental-floss” rope.

The road to the east looked worse and worse in terms of forest and hills, so we stuck around Southwest City to wait for another supercell. This one gave us a burst of strong easterly inflow winds and some broad low-level rotation, but it continued east without a tornado. In heavy rain and occasional 1.5 inch hail, we found some destroyed “stuff” near a home right on the OK/MO border about two miles north of Southwest City, and about 1.5 miles from where we had viewed the storm. An emergency responder was there. I believe three people had been injured and other houses destroyed or damaged nearby.

On our way to Grove we battled very heavy rain and occasional hail, and made it back to Tulsa around midnight.

We had a cameraman from TWC with us on the chase, and his video of the Southwest City tornado is airing today on TWC. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the good folks in Joplin.

—-

I like the surface easterlies (progged to be) just north of the surface low in the northern NE PH—-beneath the southerly flow at 700 mb. The best moisture at low levels appears to be along the NE/SD border. The cloudiness in western SD and nw NE is a bit scary currently. I prefer the area around Chadron to that from Rapid City to Faith in part because the cap seems to be a big player again, and a storm would be more likely on the higher terrain, and the area towards Chadron and Lusk is a little closer to the stronger flow progged for 00Z by the 15Z RUC. With such nice turning at low levels from east to south, I think that tornado prospects are pretty good today.

Having said all that, I may hold up a little east of the Black Hills and monitor surface and satellite trends early this afternoon before committing to the area south of the Black Hills. We are making our way west to Kadoka currently (1630Z).

—-

Bob Smith and I and the Tempest group did some quick sight-seeing in the Badlands midday, and stuck close to I-90.  The thick high-level cloud cover was sickening.  By about 2:30 p.m. MDT I was ready to abandon this area:

—-

After much consternation, I have elected to head towards the WY/NE/SD triple point area. We have been sitting beneath the bleak and cold cloud deck at Wall, SD, this afternoon. Some clearing and great instability are not too far east of Wall, and some models make some big storms in C SD later. I was very tempted to go with the Matt Crowther line of thinking of the Plains area from about Howes to Pierre. But, something just tells me that today I should be on the higher terrain in those easterly surface winds south of the Black Hills. Perhaps the biggest factor is that it has been sunny all day out there near Lusk, and the northern NE PH is clearing out some now.

Leaving Wall at 2030Z and blasting to RAP and then diving south…

—-

As we dropped south and west to Crawford and Harrison in the northern Nebraska Panhandle, an impressive supercell with a very strong updraft developed several miles south of U.S. 20 near the WY/NE border.  The paved road network in this area is horribly sparse, and we were confined to U.S. 20.  The storm’s updraft base and action area were several miles to our southwest, and occasional low clouds were interfering with our view.  We were stopped about three miles east of Harrison, and had the tripods set up and the camcorders running.  As the precip core neared from the west, it was time to bail east some.  And, as luck would have it, right as we started to move, a slender tornado appeared to our south.  It was a few miles distant, and persisted for a couple of minutes.

We were again chased east on 20 by the precip core. The cell looked ready to produce again, with a nice pregnant base and wrap-around precip curtains just to our southwest. We were able to watch this get close, but were forced east once more through the hilly/canyon/bluffy area between Harrison and Fort Robinson. During these few minutes “the public” reported another tornado to the NWS, ten miles east of Harrison. We did not observe this event, which was behind us and behind the higher terrain (assuming it is a legitimate report).  The storm continued in primarily HP mode towards Crawford and north of Chadron, and we let it go. On our way to Alliance, we waited for another strong supercell to clear the highway, and found tennis ball and baseball-sized hailstones in the grass about 15 miles south of Chadron. I reported both the Harrison tornado and hail observations to the NWS in Cheyenne.

So, it seems that I made the right chase decisions on this day, as we wound up on a tornadic supercell and witnessed a tornado!  Severe storms (and a tornado or two) occurred in the alternate target area in western SD, but this activity waited until a little after sunset for initiation.  It was great seeing the Harrison tornado, but I wish I had had a better view of the storm structure and updraft tower.  I only took a few still images, as we were generally battling the low clouds on the cool side of a boundary for the entire chase.  It is too bad that U.S. 20 was not about 7 miles farther south!  The hail pics below are courtesy of Bob Smith.