We went a long way and wound up with little to show for it. The previous two days had been quite productive for this group, and today offered two plays—the High Plains “upslope” play towards Cheyenne, and the high CAPE/strong cap play around southeastern Nebraska. There would likely be no storm initiation issues with the western option, whereas the strong cap could very well mean a big bust if we headed east from Ogallala late morning. However, the potential for an exceptionally big and nasty supercell was much greater to the east than to the west. I figured that it was worth the risk of busting by giving the eastern option a chance, especially since we had had two good days already.
During the early afternoon I posted the following on CFDG:
Our group (Chuck D., Chris G., Brian M., Keith B., and Kinney A.) has elected to blast east on I-80 towards GRI/LNK. There is an abundance of accas nearby, and some of this has developed into showers and very high-based t-storms. We are now nearing Lexington, and there are lightning strikes 50 miles to our SSW. Hastings radar suggests a boundary along the KS/NE border moving north. This separates hot and humid air from warm and humid air, but there is not much of a wind shift along the boundary. John’s thinking of initiation near Hastings or Hebron appears reasonable given the boundary and the current high-based junk there. We also need to watch the new nigh-based junk just 25 miles to our east. I’ve seen these accas showers evolve into surface-based monsters in the past.
I posted this around 6 p.m.:
At Seward exit along I-80 currently. The sky from SE to SW looks very capped and stable. Some healthy cumulus (near suface-based??) are visible to our distant north. It appears that the show today, if there is one, will be north of I-80. RUC forecasts a storm soon east of Lincoln —- the sky says otherwise.
…and near 8 p.m.:
“Nothing” is winning in this “all or nothing” game. Some cells went up around Omaha and moved northeast into IA and croaked. We are going back west towards OMA in a last ditch attempt to salvage something today. It looks bleak.
And bleak it wound up being. We bypassed Omaha and got rooms in West Point, and were treated to some nice lightning and thunder courtesy of some elevated convection. I don’t think I turned on my camera or camcorder today. You win some and you lose some.
June 23 was a down day, and we repositioned north and northwest to Murdo, SD, for the night.
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