June 14, 2012 Outflow Bonanza along U.S. 36 in NW KS

Today was marginally interesting, as we watched strong storms develop in NW KS.  These became severe-warned and started propagating southeastward across U.S. 36 in the vicinity of Oberlin and Phillipsburg.  There was never any decent attempt at wrapping up and tornado-ing, as cool outflow quickly undercut updraft bases.  We wound up witnessing a lot of windy and dusty outflow.  This became tiresome, and I decided to head towards Cozad for sunset and motel rooms.

Here is my midday forecast:

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We are too far southwest to get to SPC’s 10 percent tornado area in MN/WI today, so we are looking at nw KS and sw NE. Moisture and instability look great along the stalling-out frontal zone in the vicinity of Norton and Oberlin, KS later this afternoon. The big negative today is upper flow — 500 winds are generally 20-30 knots, and 300 flow even worse. But, easterly low-level flow is progged on the north side of the front, along and just north of the KS/NE border. Tornado prospects might not be too shabby along U.S. 6 from McCook to Alma and Minden this evening. We are in GLD currently and will drift northeast to the border.

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As it turned out, on this day there were no tornadoes in the 10-percent tornado risk area of MN/WI, and there were three weak, brief and/or small tornadoes in e CO and sw KS.