{"id":19012,"date":"2017-05-18T00:00:48","date_gmt":"2017-05-18T08:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stormbruiser.com\/chase\/?p=19012"},"modified":"2017-10-22T14:52:28","modified_gmt":"2017-10-22T22:52:28","slug":"may-18-2017-western-kansas-bust","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stormbruiser.com\/chase\/2017\/05\/18\/may-18-2017-western-kansas-bust\/","title":{"rendered":"May 18, 2017 Western Kansas bust"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"170518_1414_Sitka\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Begin: \u00a0Sayre, OK<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lunch: \u00a0Ashland, KS<\/strong><\/p>\n

End: \u00a0Woodward, OK<\/strong><\/p>\n

about 350 miles<\/strong><\/p>\n

SPC Day One\/20Z<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 755<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0SPC Mesoscale Discussion 756<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 758<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0SPC Mesoscale Discussion 759<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 760<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0SPC Mesoscale Discussion 764<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 765<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0SPC Mesoscale Discussion 766<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 769<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Storm Reports<\/a><\/p>\n

\"Sfcmap\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Yep, this is the one chase account that I was least interested in writing. \u00a0We started out in great shape, we woke up a county or two away from where a \u00a0really nice tornado-producing supercell would be later in the afternoon, and seemingly it would be almost impossible to NOT see tornados today given the High Risk and the 30-percent hatched tornado risk area all around us. \u00a0But we wound up with basically NOTHING. \u00a0Gad!<\/p>\n

On the day prior, a down-day meteorologically for us, our Tempest guides and guests hung around western Oklahoma and helped some victims of the Elk City tornado of May 16.<\/p>\n

From Sayre in western Oklahoma on May 18, I felt it was prudent to head north towards a triple-point area near Ashland, Kansas, where we stopped for lunch. \u00a0A warm front was lifting northward through southwestern Kansas, and this would be the prime area for tornadic supercells, presumably. \u00a0Storms started firing early in the afternoon, unfortunately. \u00a0Early storm initiation often portends chase failure due to a quick transition to messy storm mode. \u00a0This is kind of what happened, in Kansas at least. \u00a0From our lunch spot at Ashland we headed east to Coldwater, with a storm tower or two nearby. \u00a0These were moving northward at a rapid pace. \u00a0I wanted to go north out of Coldwater to Greensburg, but the road was closed! \u00a0That was a sign. \u00a0A sign of agony and a sign of doom. \u00a0A sign which should have told me: \u00a0forget about Kansas and get yourself south into Oklahoma and make it easy on yourself and let storms come to you. \u00a0But no, my mind was made up that we should stick with the pre-ordained Kansas target area. \u00a0It was in the High Risk area with off-the-chart tornado risk percentages, so why should I change my mind in mid-flight?<\/p>\n

Right?<\/p>\n

I think I briefly (1\/10 of a second) considered dropping south from Coldwater into northwestern Oklahoma. \u00a0This was the crucial decision point of the day, of course. \u00a0Since I could not go north to where I wanted to go, I headed east to Medicine Lodge in order to get north (to Pratt). \u00a0Even if I had headed south out of Medicine Lodge, I think we could have gotten on the storm-of-the day near Chester, OK. \u00a0But deeper into Kansas we went, while developing supercells to our northwest and north moved northward. \u00a0One or two of these became tornado-warned, but it seemed the tornadoes which formed were of the brief\/weak\/ho-hum variety (and since we were playing catch-up, we were too far away to see these). \u00a0And when the storms passed onto the cool side of the warm front, they became elevated junky storms. \u00a0We had cells coming at us along U.S. 54 between Pratt and Bucklin —- seemingly ground zero for tornados today, but the storms were junky and seemingly not surface-based. \u00a0They were fast-moving and ugly, a bunch of rain and hail and see-you-later.<\/p>\n

And so we were floundering by mid-afternoon while the overcast skies killed the instability. \u00a0It was too late to consider the Oklahoma play once we were along U.S. 54, though I thought about it again — too late. \u00a0The chase day was over by 5 p.m. \u00a0We scooted down to Sitka and saw some shelfy stuff. \u00a0This was the first time it was worth lifting the camera to my face today.<\/p>\n\n\t\t