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<\/a><\/p>\nnote — this is a long post with many images, and may be slow to fully load. \u00a0Please allow a little extra time before clicking on the thumbnail images.<\/em><\/p>\n Start: \u00a0Belle Fourche, SD<\/p>\n Lunch: \u00a0Buffalo, SD (No. 3 Saloon)<\/p>\n End: \u00a0Belle Fourche, SD<\/p>\n 271 miles<\/p>\n SPC Day One 20Z<\/a><\/p>\n SPC Mesoscale Discussion 920<\/a><\/p>\n SPC Mesoscale Discussion 923<\/a><\/p>\n SPC Mesoscale Discussion 929<\/a><\/p>\n SPC Mesoscale Discussion 933<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Above are the 18Z surface map, a 00Z surface map, and the NAM 00Z sounding analysis for the Camp Crook, SD area.<\/p>\n SPC Storm Reports<\/a><\/p>\n NWS Billings Tornado Survey<\/a><\/p>\n NWS Rapid City Tornado Survey<\/a><\/p>\n Youtube video of this event by Tempest Tours guide Tom Trott — must see!<\/a><\/p>\n My summary of this event is at the bottom of this page.<\/p>\n —–<\/p>\n By June 28 in 2018, I had been chasing and leading the chase tours for two full months, save for a couple of 4-day breaks. \u00a0The spring chase season had thus far been woefully short on tornadoes on the Great Plains, and I had had only a few days with tornadoes observed. \u00a0These were relatively low-end tornadoes. \u00a0There were a handful of somewhat high-end tornadic events during May and June, but only one or two of these were reasonably forecastable, and my forecasts on these days fell unreasonably short.<\/p>\n Anyhow, enough with the woe-is-me part, because the chase tour and I hit the jackpot on June 28th in extreme southeastern Montana and into extreme northwestern South Dakota. \u00a0A season’s worth of severe-storm mediocrity was wiped away in about two hours. \u00a0Here is the story.<\/p>\n The outlook for June 28 in the Dakotas was looking pretty darn good several days out, with SPC outlining a slight risk in their Day 4 convective outlook (issued on June 25). \u00a0Fortunately, this date was the second-to-last chase day for the Tour 7 group (with guides Tom Trott and Craig Wolter), so there were no logistical travel issues. \u00a0We chased in the Bowman, ND, area on June 26th, toured the Badlands on the 27th, and were positioned nicely at breakfast time on the 28th, in Belle Fourche. \u00a0SPC showed a moderate risk for much of North Dakota on their Day One outlooks, but they dropped the healthy 10 percent tornado risk in their 13Z outlook to 5 percent for the 1630Z Day One outlook.<\/p>\n No biggie — it still appeared to be shaping up to be a great chase day somewhere in western North Dakota and vicinity. \u00a0A surface low was in eastern Wyoming, and very moist, backed winds were forecast northeast of the low for the afternoon and evening, in eastern MT, northwestern SD, and western ND. \u00a0With an approaching upper-level disturbance and 500 winds blowing at 40-50 knots from the WSW, the wind shear was looking fantastic. \u00a0 Belle Fourche was muggy and overcast through mid-morning, but bright sunshine ruled the region by late morning. \u00a0The BIG factor which this chase day had going for it (that most others this season did not) was quality moisture! \u00a0Dew points were well into the 70s over all of western SD mid-morning, with low 70s seeping nicely into southeastern MT and southwestern ND. \u00a0This great moist air was NOT forecast to mix out during the day. \u00a0It would be in place to meet and greet any thunderstorm that might roll through the region. \u00a0The forecast instability was fantastic, with CAPE values well over 5000 J\/kg. \u00a0The quality moisture should ensure low storm bases, and the strong storm-relative inflow and superb wind profiles just above the surface would promote tornadoes. \u00a0Now all I had to do was to make sure that I wound up on the right storm! \u00a0I let the tour group know in the morning briefing that all of the parameters were looking super, and that their chances of seeing a tornado this day were about 50 percent.<\/p>\n The easiest chase decision of the day was to head north out of Belle Fourche. \u00a0We needed to be north-to-northeast of the surface low, in the moist east to east-southeasterlies. \u00a0That was the easy part. \u00a0SPC was talking about a warm front lifting north during the day towards Canada. \u00a0Of course, a storm on the warm front would be a great tornado candidate. \u00a0The forecast charts, to my eyes, looked to favor the area bounded by about Buffalo, SD; Baker, MT; and Bowman, ND. \u00a0This area was a little south of the forecast position of the warm front towards early evening. \u00a0The forecast maps showed the warm front up around or north of I-94 later in the day. \u00a0The CAMs (convection-allowing models) during the morning showed a handful of rotating storms in and around western ND by early evening. \u00a0The chase target was not particularly clear-cut. \u00a0Would we need to be well up into North Dakota, perhaps north of I-94? \u00a0This was in the middle of the western part of the moderate risk area, and might seem at first glance to be a good starting point. \u00a0Would we need to be in eastern Montana, around Glendive or Sidney, where very moist east winds were in place and where initiation might be more likely? \u00a0I did not know yet. \u00a0We had an embarrassingly short drive north to Buffalo and stopped for lunch.<\/p>\n From Buffalo, I figured that it would be prudent to get a little farther north. \u00a0Buffalo was kind of near the southern edge of the severe risk and tornado risk outlines by SPC. \u00a0More options would remain open by heading north. \u00a0I was thinking that I might eventually need to head west to Baker on Route 12, and perhaps north from there. \u00a0One thing that concerned me was the rather dreadful road network in southwestern North Dakota. \u00a0This area sports a pathetically sparse paved road network, and I knew that I didn’t want to wind up too far west with something big going up to my east and moving east…and with no handy road to get there. \u00a0That was my nightmare scenario for this day. \u00a0 Just keep your options open, Bill, until it is obvious as to where you need to be!<\/p>\n Our group stopped in Rhame, ND (west of Bowman) for a couple of hours as I monitored the weather conditions online. \u00a0Fortunately, there was a nice, cool cafe in which to hang out, as it was dreadfully warm and humid and uncomfortable outside. \u00a0By \u00a03 or 4 p.m., some weak convective towers were scattered about, but the sunshine ruled and it felt better to be eating ice cream indoors. \u00a0The HRRR model runs during this afternoon were fairly consistent in showing a big cell trucking through northern Harding County (just north of Buffalo, SD) towards sunset. \u00a0I knew that if this did indeed transpire, that it would be privy to all of the impressive severe-weather ingredients and would make our group very happy. \u00a0A Harding County storm intercept would be a snap from Rhame — just minutes away! \u00a0But there was that warm front to consider. \u00a0And it seemed that most other chasers were clustered along I-94 from Dickenson to the Montana line. \u00a0And, a storm was now getting going and was in a great environment up towards Watford City, north of I-94 a bit. \u00a0Would that one be the main show? \u00a0I would probably be headed to that one if I were currently up on I-94 at Belfield. \u00a0But I was trying to stick to my Baker-Buffalo-Bowman guns. \u00a0The storm environment appeared to be a notch or two better down here at Rhame compared to that north of I-94. \u00a0Moisture and winds were better down here. \u00a0As the afternoon dragged on though, it was becoming clearer that storm initiation would NOT occur anywhere close to Rhame, or to my target area. \u00a0The cap was rather strong here, and the cumulus towers were weak. \u00a0Surface moisture convergence was becoming less strong in this region. \u00a0Hmmm.<\/p>\n As 4:30 p.m. came and went, I decided to head over to Bowman, about 12 miles to the east. \u00a0A fast north option was here, if needed (U.S. 85). \u00a0I was still thinking that the I-94 area and that less-than-obvious warm front might be where I needed to be. \u00a0On radar, that Watford City storm looked okay, but not super. \u00a0I was having difficulty seeing the warm front in the current surface observations. \u00a0Buffalo, to our south, still showed ESE winds. \u00a0During the fuel stop and pit stop at Bowman, I checked the latest visible satellite loop. \u00a0There it was — a quickly expanding storm anvil well to our southwest, a little ways south or southwest of Broadus! \u00a0Well, that wasn’t really where I wanted it to be, as it was perhaps 120 miles away. \u00a0But, it was still very early, and that activity should eventually approach my target area. \u00a0My second easy decision of the day was made —- let’s go get it, gang!<\/p>\n We headed south to Buffalo, west to Camp Crook, and to the SD\/MT border a little southwest of Camp Crook. \u00a0Pavement ends at Montana! \u00a0The Broadus-area storms had evolved from a loose and disorganized group and into a dominating supercell. \u00a0The large storm anvil was beginning to surge overhead. \u00a0Occasional CGs were spotted, too, but some elevated Montana terrain effectively blocked that which we aspired to observe to our southwest. \u00a0 \u00a0We went perhaps six miles west on Tie Creek Road from the state line (near Camp Crook) and stopped. \u00a0This road continued WNW-ward to paved route 323. \u00a0We watched the approaching storm from here for maybe five-ten minutes, and it was a lousy spot because of the hills to our west and southwest. \u00a0I didn’t want to go any farther WNW on this gravel road, and I wanted to see the storm updraft that was moving towards us from Broadus. \u00a0We went back east to the state line, and then south on Camp Crook Road. \u00a0This took us south-southwestward to Albion via Capitol. \u00a0I had been on this stretch of road once before, from Camp Crook to Capitol<\/a>, but not beyond to Albion. It was a great gravel road, fortunately. \u00a0After about 30 miles, we were at Albion and paved road 323. \u00a0A fantastic and sculpted supercell updraft was to our west — woohoo!<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n