{"id":24677,"date":"2019-05-17T22:16:14","date_gmt":"2019-05-18T06:16:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stormbruiser.com\/chase\/?p=24677"},"modified":"2020-01-02T20:17:57","modified_gmt":"2020-01-03T04:17:57","slug":"may-17-2019-mccook-to-cozad-tornadic-supercell","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stormbruiser.com\/chase\/2019\/05\/17\/may-17-2019-mccook-to-cozad-tornadic-supercell\/","title":{"rendered":"May 17, 2019 McCook to Cozad Tornadic Supercell"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Start: \u00a0Ogallala, NE<\/p>\n

Lunch: \u00a0Paxton, NE (Windy Gap Grill)<\/p>\n

End: \u00a0Alma, NE<\/p>\n

345 miles<\/p>\n

SPC Day One 20Z<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 648<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0SPC Mesoscale Discussion 649<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 652<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0SPC Mesoscale Discussion 653<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 658<\/a><\/p>\n

Storm Reports<\/a><\/p>\n

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17-minute time-lapse video<\/a> of the day’s chase by Chris Gullikson, featuring the GBOR Cam.<\/p>\n

Chase account<\/a> by TT guest L. Ryan, with map and time-lapse video<\/p>\n

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This day had very big potential, and it did not disappoint! \u00a0SPC showed an enhanced slight and a fairly large 10-percent hatched tornado risk area around central and southwestern Nebraska. \u00a0A potent upper-level system was moving through Colorado, and a deep surface low was in extreme northeastern Colorado. \u00a0It was not difficult to figure that I wanted to be within a couple of counties of Imperial or McCook on this afternoon, and perhaps up towards Custer County in central Nebraska towards evening.<\/p>\n

Though the forecast was relatively straight-forward, the chase logistics were very problematic. \u00a0Storm initiation appeared likely just east of the surface low, in northwestern Kansas. \u00a0The storms would likely be moving quickly to the northeast, given the strong southwesterly flow at 700 and 500 millibars. \u00a0The paved road network is not very good in southwestern Nebraska, and a month or two of rains had trashed a lot of the unpaved roads. \u00a0I had to figure out where the most likely spot \u00a0for tornadoes would be, as staying with a fast-moving and northeastward-moving supercell through southwestern Nebraska would be very difficult. \u00a0The last thing that I wanted was to be playing catch-up before the main show. \u00a0I needed to be patient.<\/p>\n

We had time to kill late morning, so we explored some farmland near the North Platte River, north of Paxton. \u00a0Have you heard of the town of Sarben? \u00a0It is not particularly noteworthy. \u00a0After lunch in Paxton, we headed south towards Wallace, and then drifted west a little. \u00a0We sat and waited as storms developed well to our SSW, in NW Kansas. \u00a0One organized fairly quickly and became warned. \u00a0Other storms were to our SW and WSW, I think, and these moved to our west. \u00a0I ignored this activity that was closer to the CO\/NE line. \u00a0We needed to watch that one moving out of Kansas! \u00a0It had access to the better moisture. \u00a0Someone reported a funnel cloud with it already, near McDonald.<\/p>\n

We went south via Hayes Center to Culbertson and McCook, with a view of the storm to our south and southwest. \u00a0It was moving to the NE or NNE at about 35 mph, if I recall correctly. \u00a0I was looking at surface weather maps, which showed very nice backed winds up towards I-80. \u00a0The winds at Lexington (on I-80) were from the southeast and gusting to 30 mph. \u00a0The winds at McCook were just as strong, but were from the south. \u00a0I figured that the best chance for a significant tornado was closer to I-80, and I was quite nervous that we were already too far south. \u00a0I thought that we should hedge east and north, but the next paved north option east of McCook was WAY to the east, at Arapahoe, about 35 miles distant. \u00a0I had pretty much ruled out using the unpaved roads to the northeast of McCook (to Stockville and Farnam), due to the recent rainy weather and the fast storm motion.<\/p>\n

With the storm approaching Culbertson and McCook, we set up east of McCook by a mile or two to watch.<\/p>\n

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