{"id":32864,"date":"2021-05-16T00:00:49","date_gmt":"2021-05-16T08:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stormbruiser.com\/chase\/?p=32864"},"modified":"2021-11-23T13:54:34","modified_gmt":"2021-11-23T21:54:34","slug":"may-16-2021-sudan-tx-earth-tx-supercell-and-tornado","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stormbruiser.com\/chase\/2021\/05\/16\/may-16-2021-sudan-tx-earth-tx-supercell-and-tornado\/","title":{"rendered":"May 16, 2021 Sudan, TX\/Earth, TX Supercell and Tornado"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Start: \u00a0Guymon, OK\/Braums in Canyon, TX\/End: \u00a0Littlefield, TX\/344 miles<\/p>\n

SPC Storm Reports<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Day One\/20Z<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 636<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0SPC Mesoscale Discussion 638<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 642<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0SPC Mesoscale Discussion 643<\/a><\/p>\n

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 645<\/a><\/p>\n

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22Z\/5 p.m. CDT surface map and 01Z\/8 p.m. surface map above\/chase route below<\/p>\n

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Sudan\/Earth Tornado video by Chris Gullikson\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Wide-angle\/Time Lapse of chase event by Chris G.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Time Lapse of Supercell updraft at sunset by TT guide Richard Rostant\u00a0<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Today’s slight risk area on the High Plains extended from about Wray to Tahoka, with a large tornado risk area of only 2%. \u00a0We began in Guymon, and the best (general) play seemed somewhat obvious to me: \u00a0we needed to get down south in the Texas Panhandle and south of I-40 a little. \u00a0 I don’t recall a big difference in upper-level support north-to-south, but I liked the slightly better forecast instability and dew points in the vicinity of Plainview and Lubbock. \u00a0At 3 p.m. CDT\/20Z, Lubbock had a dew point of 63F, while it was only 57F at Amarillo and lower still at Dumas. \u00a0Dews jumped back up to near 60F in southwest Kansas, but I don’t recall why western Kansas did not seem to be the better play. \u00a0Lowest surface pressure was near Tucumcari. \u00a0Winds were not backed much at all anywhere at 3 or 5 p.m. CDT (but by 8 p.m. wind was southeasterly at Plainview and Lubbock and even ESE at Hereford). \u00a0There was a weak dry line boundary near the NM\/TX border, but no other boundaries were obvious to me in the Panhandles. \u00a0Thus, it looked like a decent day for a supercell on the nice, flat Caprock of the Texas Panhandle, but a tornado might require a little Panhandle Magic. \u00a0I was kind of feeling my way around semi-blindly as to where I needed to be exactly. \u00a0It is possible that the models suggested that nice backing of the wind south of I-40 in the western TX Panhandle towards sunset and why I targeted that area.<\/p>\n

We had lunch in Canyon, and then headed further south to Plainview. \u00a0We jumped on U.S. 70 west to Olton and then south a little to Feldton. \u00a0By this time there was some bubbling to our west on the dry line near New Mexico, and a little later I was drawn northwestward on U.S. 84 from Sudan to just west of Muleshoe. \u00a0Here, a cumulonimbus was struggling. \u00a0Its base was high and I was not impressed. \u00a0We sat under its anvil, and then saw another updraft start to go up not too far to our south in the sunshine (first two pics below). \u00a0This updraft was very robust from the get-go, and it turned out to be the tornado-maker today. \u00a0I did a little zoomed-in time-lapse video of this updraft, and then determined that it would be a good idea to get close. \u00a0About 15-20 minutes later we were back at Sudan and setting up just northeast of town. \u00a0This storm base was looking good.<\/p>\n

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