June 28, 2018 Capitol, Montana tornadoes

 

note — this is a long post with many images, and may be slow to fully load.  Please allow a little extra time before clicking on the thumbnail images.

Start:  Belle Fourche, SD

Lunch:  Buffalo, SD (No. 3 Saloon)

End:  Belle Fourche, SD

271 miles

SPC Day One 20Z

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 920

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 923

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 929

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 933

 

 

Above are the 18Z surface map, a 00Z surface map, and the NAM 00Z sounding analysis for the Camp Crook, SD area.

SPC Storm Reports

NWS Billings Tornado Survey

NWS Rapid City Tornado Survey

Youtube video of this event by Tempest Tours guide Tom Trott — must see!

My summary of this event is at the bottom of this page.

—–

By June 28 in 2018, I had been chasing and leading the chase tours for two full months, save for a couple of 4-day breaks.  The spring chase season had thus far been woefully short on tornadoes on the Great Plains, and I had had only a few days with tornadoes observed.  These were relatively low-end tornadoes.  There were a handful of somewhat high-end tornadic events during May and June, but only one or two of these were reasonably forecastable, and my forecasts on these days fell unreasonably short.

Anyhow, enough with the woe-is-me part, because the chase tour and I hit the jackpot on June 28th in extreme southeastern Montana and into extreme northwestern South Dakota.  A season’s worth of severe-storm mediocrity was wiped away in about two hours.  Here is the story.

The outlook for June 28 in the Dakotas was looking pretty darn good several days out, with SPC outlining a slight risk in their Day 4 convective outlook (issued on June 25).  Fortunately, this date was the second-to-last chase day for the Tour 7 group (with guides Tom Trott and Craig Wolter), so there were no logistical travel issues.  We chased in the Bowman, ND, area on June 26th, toured the Badlands on the 27th, and were positioned nicely at breakfast time on the 28th, in Belle Fourche.  SPC showed a moderate risk for much of North Dakota on their Day One outlooks, but they dropped the healthy 10 percent tornado risk in their 13Z outlook to 5 percent for the 1630Z Day One outlook.

No biggie — it still appeared to be shaping up to be a great chase day somewhere in western North Dakota and vicinity.  A surface low was in eastern Wyoming, and very moist, backed winds were forecast northeast of the low for the afternoon and evening, in eastern MT, northwestern SD, and western ND.  With an approaching upper-level disturbance and 500 winds blowing at 40-50 knots from the WSW, the wind shear was looking fantastic.   Belle Fourche was muggy and overcast through mid-morning, but bright sunshine ruled the region by late morning.  The BIG factor which this chase day had going for it (that most others this season did not) was quality moisture!  Dew points were well into the 70s over all of western SD mid-morning, with low 70s seeping nicely into southeastern MT and southwestern ND.  This great moist air was NOT forecast to mix out during the day.  It would be in place to meet and greet any thunderstorm that might roll through the region.  The forecast instability was fantastic, with CAPE values well over 5000 J/kg.  The quality moisture should ensure low storm bases, and the strong storm-relative inflow and superb wind profiles just above the surface would promote tornadoes.  Now all I had to do was to make sure that I wound up on the right storm!  I let the tour group know in the morning briefing that all of the parameters were looking super, and that their chances of seeing a tornado this day were about 50 percent.

The easiest chase decision of the day was to head north out of Belle Fourche.  We needed to be north-to-northeast of the surface low, in the moist east to east-southeasterlies.  That was the easy part.  SPC was talking about a warm front lifting north during the day towards Canada.  Of course, a storm on the warm front would be a great tornado candidate.  The forecast charts, to my eyes, looked to favor the area bounded by about Buffalo, SD; Baker, MT; and Bowman, ND.  This area was a little south of the forecast position of the warm front towards early evening.  The forecast maps showed the warm front up around or north of I-94 later in the day.  The CAMs (convection-allowing models) during the morning showed a handful of rotating storms in and around western ND by early evening.  The chase target was not particularly clear-cut.  Would we need to be well up into North Dakota, perhaps north of I-94?  This was in the middle of the western part of the moderate risk area, and might seem at first glance to be a good starting point.  Would we need to be in eastern Montana, around Glendive or Sidney, where very moist east winds were in place and where initiation might be more likely?  I did not know yet.  We had an embarrassingly short drive north to Buffalo and stopped for lunch.

From Buffalo, I figured that it would be prudent to get a little farther north.  Buffalo was kind of near the southern edge of the severe risk and tornado risk outlines by SPC.  More options would remain open by heading north.  I was thinking that I might eventually need to head west to Baker on Route 12, and perhaps north from there.  One thing that concerned me was the rather dreadful road network in southwestern North Dakota.  This area sports a pathetically sparse paved road network, and I knew that I didn’t want to wind up too far west with something big going up to my east and moving east…and with no handy road to get there.  That was my nightmare scenario for this day.   Just keep your options open, Bill, until it is obvious as to where you need to be!

Our group stopped in Rhame, ND (west of Bowman) for a couple of hours as I monitored the weather conditions online.  Fortunately, there was a nice, cool cafe in which to hang out, as it was dreadfully warm and humid and uncomfortable outside.  By  3 or 4 p.m., some weak convective towers were scattered about, but the sunshine ruled and it felt better to be eating ice cream indoors.  The HRRR model runs during this afternoon were fairly consistent in showing a big cell trucking through northern Harding County (just north of Buffalo, SD) towards sunset.  I knew that if this did indeed transpire, that it would be privy to all of the impressive severe-weather ingredients and would make our group very happy.  A Harding County storm intercept would be a snap from Rhame — just minutes away!  But there was that warm front to consider.  And it seemed that most other chasers were clustered along I-94 from Dickenson to the Montana line.  And, a storm was now getting going and was in a great environment up towards Watford City, north of I-94 a bit.  Would that one be the main show?  I would probably be headed to that one if I were currently up on I-94 at Belfield.  But I was trying to stick to my Baker-Buffalo-Bowman guns.  The storm environment appeared to be a notch or two better down here at Rhame compared to that north of I-94.  Moisture and winds were better down here.  As the afternoon dragged on though, it was becoming clearer that storm initiation would NOT occur anywhere close to Rhame, or to my target area.  The cap was rather strong here, and the cumulus towers were weak.  Surface moisture convergence was becoming less strong in this region.  Hmmm.

As 4:30 p.m. came and went, I decided to head over to Bowman, about 12 miles to the east.  A fast north option was here, if needed (U.S. 85).  I was still thinking that the I-94 area and that less-than-obvious warm front might be where I needed to be.  On radar, that Watford City storm looked okay, but not super.  I was having difficulty seeing the warm front in the current surface observations.  Buffalo, to our south, still showed ESE winds.  During the fuel stop and pit stop at Bowman, I checked the latest visible satellite loop.  There it was — a quickly expanding storm anvil well to our southwest, a little ways south or southwest of Broadus!  Well, that wasn’t really where I wanted it to be, as it was perhaps 120 miles away.  But, it was still very early, and that activity should eventually approach my target area.  My second easy decision of the day was made —- let’s go get it, gang!

We headed south to Buffalo, west to Camp Crook, and to the SD/MT border a little southwest of Camp Crook.  Pavement ends at Montana!  The Broadus-area storms had evolved from a loose and disorganized group and into a dominating supercell.  The large storm anvil was beginning to surge overhead.  Occasional CGs were spotted, too, but some elevated Montana terrain effectively blocked that which we aspired to observe to our southwest.    We went perhaps six miles west on Tie Creek Road from the state line (near Camp Crook) and stopped.  This road continued WNW-ward to paved route 323.  We watched the approaching storm from here for maybe five-ten minutes, and it was a lousy spot because of the hills to our west and southwest.  I didn’t want to go any farther WNW on this gravel road, and I wanted to see the storm updraft that was moving towards us from Broadus.  We went back east to the state line, and then south on Camp Crook Road.  This took us south-southwestward to Albion via Capitol.  I had been on this stretch of road once before, from Camp Crook to Capitol, but not beyond to Albion. It was a great gravel road, fortunately.  After about 30 miles, we were at Albion and paved road 323.  A fantastic and sculpted supercell updraft was to our west — woohoo!

 

The map above shows our route from Bowman, ND (just off of the top of the map along U.S. 85) to Albion, MT.  The town of Buffalo is beneath the word “Harding.”   Harding County, SD, is darkened slightly.

 

From the ghost town of Albion, we headed northwest on 323 a few miles and stopped (around 6:45 p.m. MDT/0045Z) to watch the rotating updraft.  The supercell was to our west or WNW, and moving to the ENE, so it would move to our NW and N.  Here we had plenty of time to set up the tripods and the time-lapse cameras and to admire the storm.  There was perhaps a shallow lowering with the storm base on occasion, but the storm was in no hurry — yet — to make tornadoes.

 

 

 

The map above shows the approximate locations of our stop northwest of Albion, MT, and the tornado to our NNW.  The storm and tornado were likely a bit more distant than shown here.

 

The structure with this supercell was about the best I had seen all spring!  The funny thing, looking back, is that I was not really contemplating about what might occur in the not-too-distant future.  It had escaped me for the time being that the storm was headed right into this superb environment for tornado development.  Maybe I was just too deep into my 2018 mindset.  In 2018, storm chasers had been conditioned to expect a tornado no-show.  But, I WAS contemplating my road options now.  The supercell was tracking east-northeastward across 323, perhaps 10-13 miles northwest of Albion.  If I stuck to paved roads the rest of the way on this chase, then I would have to go all of the way southeast to Belle Fourche, and then north-northeast to Buffalo.  That would get me to the No. 3 Saloon in Buffalo sometime during the Day 4-8 timeframe, and this storm would be a few rotating water molecules in Latvia.  That narrow gravel road back up to Capitol would be THE ONLY WAY to stay close.

As the leading edge of the updraft base neared, to our northwest, the action area (to the NNW) began to stir.  An obvious but bewildering shroud of dust materialized beneath a — beneath a — well, beneath where a tornado would be if one were to form. A funnel cloud was still absent.  The images below were taken at about 7:11 p.m. and 7:15 p.m. MDT (0111Z and 0115Z), about 30 minutes after we had arrived at this spot along Highway 323.

 

 

Yes, the storm base was quite low, and yes, there was a great big RFD cut slicing into this updraft base, and it was looking like tornado-time!  But what was this massive area of obscuring phenomena?!  It was probably a mix of dust and precipitation, and after a few minutes a tornado decided to make itself visible in the murk!  I estimate that it was about 7-9 miles distant.

 

 

The photos above were with the long lens, and with quite a bit of contrast help in the image-editing software, the tornado is quite apparent.  The photo times are from 7:17 to 7:19 p.m. MDT (0117Z to 0119Z).  It was not that easy to see with the naked eye at the time, though.  The tornado seemed to do another disappearing act, and I had the gang back in the vans quickly.  We really needed to get ourselves into better position.  We had to go a few miles southeast, away from the tornado, in order to get to our north-to-northeast option at Albion.  This would take a little time, of course.  But in a minute or two, the guests were shouting that the tornado was visible again!  I didn’t want to stop.  We needed to get into better position.  But one never knows if this will be “THE Show” or not, so we stopped again and I got more shots with the long (70-200mm) lens.

 

 

My images of the tornado from this second location (northwest of Albion) were from 7:27 to 7:31 p.m. MDT (0127 to 0131Z).  This (possibly intermittent) Tornado #1 existed from about 7:15 to 7:35 p.m. MDT (0115Z to 0135Z), and was approximately 10-13 miles NW to NNW of Albion, MT.

The last two images, above, are the same photo.  The second one of these two is heavily processed, and the first one of these two is basically how it looked at the time.  It is too bad that it was so distant, as it no-doubt would have been mind-bogglingly stunning in that sunlight for an observer just a mile or less from it!

This was the first tornado of the chase day, the first tornado produced by this supercell.  I knew that it would not be the only one.  I was now hellbent on getting the tour group a lot closer to the action area of this magnificent storm.  This gravel road which headed north-northeastward from Albion was just about perfect…except that it was a gravel road!  The supercell was going to rain on it, and it might become sloppy and problematic.  If we got stuck, it would be hours to get any help.  Or maybe days.  Or months.  Is there cell service here?  Does anyone live around here?  But, we had just been on the road an hour prior, and it seemed like it would be manageable in wet conditions.  We were soon on Camp Crook Road again, and headed north-northeastward along the Little Missouri River.   The supercell was fixin’ to work its magic up ahead.

A new action area was evident to our north.  The base was black and beckoning and maybe five miles away.  We needed to get up to it!  A good-sized funnel descended very quickly, and Tornado #2 was in progress!  We were about 4-5 miles northeast of Albion as this transpired, not quite to the kink in Camp Crook Road which crosses the Little Missouri.  This tornado was much closer than the previous one, and the guests were anxious to stop right away to get out of the van to watch!  But we needed to cross the river first.

 

 

The shots above were taken with the long lens while inside of the van while in motion, from about 7:43 to 7:44 p.m. MDT (0143Z to 0144Z).  The trees along the river are visible.  It was amazing how quickly this funnel developed!  Note the impressively large and lower storm base to the north of this tornado.

Did you write yourself a note of this?

After an excruciating couple of minutes of positioning, we found an area with no trees blocking the view.  It was time to stop and to shoot the tube!

 

 

Tornado #2 was perhaps four miles distant to our NNW or N, or about 10-12 miles southwest of Capitol, Montana (in Carter County).  My camera time stamps for this tornado, from this stopping point, are from 7:45 to 7:48 p.m. (0145Z to 0148Z).  It looked to be weakening a little, but was still in progress when I decided that we needed to get ourselves farther up the road.  The supercell was really going into “tornado machine mode” now.

Tornado #2 disappeared about as quickly as it appeared once we were rolling again.  I would estimate its timeframe as from 7:42 p.m. to 7:50 p.m. MDT.  Now in our sights was a healthy rotating wall cloud, and it was practically sitting on Camp Crook Road.

 

 

The images above were taken while on the move,  and are wide-angle (15mm) shots, at approximately 8:01 p.m. MDT (0201Z).  Precipitation curtains are visible on the south and southeast sides of the lowest part of the storm base.  This was a developing tornadic mesocyclone, and another tornado was imminent!  We continued towards the tight area of rotation, which involved darting through a couple of fast-moving curtains of heavy rain and hail.  These bouts with rain were brief, fortunately.  After about 6 or 7 miles from our previous spot, we stopped again to watch Tornado #3 develop.  Here is the map showing our approximate stopping points, and the approximate path for Tornado #3.

 

 

 

The images above (8:03 to 8:05 p.m. MDT/0203Z to 0205Z) were with the 15mm wide-angle lens also, so objects are closer than they appear!  The tornado touched down perhaps 1.5 miles away, to our northeast.  This would put it about four miles SSW to S of the little enclave of Capitol.  I was surprised that the tornado emerged out of the gray area on the right side of the road, and not from the blacker area to its left from our perspective.  I ran back to the van to grab the Canon with the long lens.  We could easily hear the tornado now.

 

 

The images above (from 8:06 to 8:09 p.m. MDT/0206 to 0209Z) were generally shot from a range of 70mm to 90mm on the zoom lens.  The tornado was moving to the east or northeast rather slowly, and there was an opportunity to get even closer.  Thank goodness for Camp Crook Road!  Tom and Craig steered the vans and its incredulous stormchasers closer to Capitol.  The images below were taken around 8:11 p.m. MDT/0211Z.

 

 

We stopped after another mile or two (Tornado #3/stop #2) and were now southwest of the tornado.  The view to the northeast was stunning, and I ran out into the field with the wide-angle lens to be on the other side of the power poles.  The images below were around 8:13 p.m. MDT/0213Z.

 

 

It was a little wet and windy out here in the field, with occasional small hail.  Big surprise, right!  We cared little about our comfort level as we marveled at this spectacle.

I think we were here for just a couple of minutes.  As the tornado continued across the Montana/South Dakota border, just southeast of Capitol, we scampered north to Capitol and then east to try to stay relatively close.  The three images below were during this driving stretch, with the third image at about 8:21 p.m. MDT/0220Z.

 

 

We stopped within a stone’s throw of the state line, in rain and some small hail.  The tornado was now almost due east of us, and it roped out perhaps 2 miles distant.  The images below were taken from about 8:23 to 8:27 p.m. MDT/0223Z to 0227Z).

 

 

Wow— that was quite a ride!  Thank goodness that the gravel road(s) were awesome, as were my drivers!   And thank goodness that I had not been lulled towards some other storm earlier this day!

For this long-lived Tornado #3, my camera time stamps show a beginning time of about 8:04 p.m. and an ending time of about 8:27 p.m. MDT (0204Z to 0227Z), or nearly 25 minutes in duration.   I estimate that it tracked from about 3-4 miles SSW of Capitol to 3-4 miles E to ENE of Capitol, winding up (or winding down) a mile or two into South Dakota.

 

 

Our east road from Capitol ended a mile into South Dakota, and upon stopping ANOTHER new tornado had formed, maybe five miles to our east!  This was Tornado #4, and the time was 8:30 p.m. MDT/0230Z.

 

 

There was no way to quickly drive closer to this tornado.  We were now along South Camp Crook Road, and the next road eastbound was about seven miles to the south.  Since the storm was headed more to the east-northeast, I elected to head north to Camp Crook, about a ten-mile drive.  We quickly lost sight of Tornado #4 behind the storm’s precipitation core.  Our next stop was along Route 20 in Harding County, perhaps four miles east-northeast of Camp Crook.  It was past sunset now, and with dusk upon the land we had a good look at the backside of the storm to our east…and a poor look at another tornado to our south!  The contrast was dismal, and the light was very poor, but there was a good-sized and tall stovepipe tornado to our south or south-southeast.  This persisted for several minutes at least.  Was this one the final stage of Tornado #4, which we had observed in its initial stages some 15-20 minutes earlier?  I don’t know.  But, I think the chances are good that these two tornado “sightings” were from the same meso or tornado cyclone, and there is a good chance that this was indeed the same tornado.  NWS Rapid City split this “event” into two separate tornados. 

 

 

The images of Tornado #4 (above) were from 8:48 to 8:58 p.m. MDT (0248Z to 0258Z).  The tornado was moving generally towards us, from south to north, so it was a little easier to see as it was finally roping out.  It dissipated only a few miles away.  Again, I categorize this tornado (or “intermittent” tornado) as the same one spotted at 8:30 p.m., east of Capitol.  Its ending time was approximately 8:59 p.m. MDT (0259Z).  The map above shows our approximate locations (X) at 8:30 and 8:59 p.m. MDT, and the beginning and ending points for Tornado #4.

I can’t recall for sure, but I think that we drove another mile or two eastbound towards Buffalo.  It was dark out now, but plenty of lightning was providing a good show in the updraft to our east.  The storm was blocking our path to Buffalo for the time-being, and it didn’t seem like a good idea to drive into this storm!  So, we stopped and got out to watch the backside of the storm along the deserted highway.  After a lightning flash or two to the east, guests were seeing a tornado shape!  It was Tornado #5, and this was another good-sized and long-lived tornado which we could easily photograph courtesy of the lightning flashes.  I was lazy and didn’t put a camera on a tripod.  The images below (approximately 9:12 p.m. to 9:20 p.m. MDT/0312Z to 0320Z) were handheld images of 1 to 1.6 seconds in length, with the 15mm lens.  The survey by NWS Rapid City show this tornado some five miles or so to our east to east-northeast.

 

 

Another impressive lowering loomed just southeast of the area where Tornado #5 roped out.  I phoned the NWS in Rapid City again (for the third time today) to let them know what I was seeing.  It looked like the storm was ready to produce another tornado, perhaps close to the town of Buffalo.  But one did not form, as far as we could see, and the storm updraft began to slowly diminish in strength.  We made our way into Buffalo, where many were lined up along the sidewalks and watching the sky.  I wonder what these folks witnessed in the past hour or two?!  The convenience stores were closed in town, and we headed south to Belle Fourche for the night.  The chase day of June 28, 2018, was over, and it had been a doozy!

Check out the NWS Rapid City survey page for additional info on the tornadoes in South Dakota, including some great radar images.  The NWS Billings page has information for the tornadoes on the Montana side.

I count five tornadoes for this event, but there may have been more than that.  A relatively brief and weak anticyclonic tornado was documented about the time that the large Capitol tornado was getting strong, but we did not observe it.  The tornado from about 8:30 to 9:00 p.m. MDT, southeast of Camp Crook, SD, is counted as two tornadoes by NWS Rapid City.  I count it as one intermittent tornado, since it was likely from the same meso/radar couplet of the supercell.

 

SUMMARY

Here is a summary with the approximate times of the tornadoes, according to my camera time stamps:

Tornado #1, about 10-13 miles NW to NNW of Albion, Montana in Carter County, 7:15 to 7:35 p.m. MDT (0115Z to 0135Z).  NWS Billings reports that this tornado was spotted crossing Road 323 “about 12 miles north of Albion” in the Finger Butte area around 7:17 p.m.  It was assigned a rating of EF0.  It is possible that this tornado was intermittent, or two tornadoes, for the 20-minute time frame from 7:15 to 7:35 p.m.  But, this tornado event was very likely from the same meso/radar couplet and should be counted as one tornado.  The tornado was over open country and did no damage, but its look and longevity were rather impressive.  I suspect that this tornado was capable of EF2 damage, perhaps even a little greater.  The NWS had to assign EF0 due to the lack of damage and lack of access to anything impacted.

From the NWS Billings report:

 

Tornado #2, about 8-10 miles N to NNW of Albion, or about 10-12 miles SW of Capitol, Montana, in Carter County, 7:42 to 7:50 p.m. MDT (0142 to 0150Z).  The NWS Billings survey describes this tornado (with perhaps the last part of Tornado #1, or perhaps with the very brief anticyclonic tornado at 8:01 p.m.?) as “two additional brief tornado touchdowns.”  No damage occurred with these in the extremely rural areas.   Tornado #2 was not brief and was indeed quite intense:  see Tom’s video, Minute 4 to minute 6.  It appeared quite capable of EF2 to EF3 damage for much of its 8-minute lifespan, covering a track of 2 to 3 miles at least.  Tornado #2 should be, and is, rated EF0 since there was no damage.

From the NWS Billings report:

Tornado #3.  I call the long-lived and large tornado near Capitol, Montana, “Tornado #3.”    It occurred from about 8:04 to 8:27 p.m. MDT (0204Z to 0227Z) according to my camera timestamps.  NWS Billings shows a rating of EF2 on the Montana side and EF3 on the South Dakota side.

I have the path from about 4 miles south-southwest of Capitol to about 3 to 4 miles east-northeast of Capitol, in South Dakota.

This was a strong-to-violent tornado, and if it had tracked through a heavily-developed area, would have likely caused EF4 damage.  The NWS found evidence of EF3 damage.

From the NWS Billings report:

Tornado #5   I have this one from about 9:12 to 9:20 p.m. MDT (0212Z to 0220Z), and NWS Rapid City has it from 9:10 to 9:26 p.m. MDT.  It moved north from near mile marker 17 on SR 20, which is about equidistant from Camp Crook and Buffalo.  It received a rating of EF2, which is not surprising given its longevity and appearance in the lightning flashes.

The cyclic tornadic supercell which tracked from near Broadus, Montana; to Capitol, Montana; and to Buffalo, South Dakota lasted for about four hours, from about 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. MDT (00Z to 04Z).  The tornadoes with it began at about 7:15 p.m. MDT and ended around 9:20 p.m. MDT (0115Z to 0320Z), a two-hour timeframe.  Tornadoes were in progress for about 90 minutes during this two-hour period.